Timberwolves’ championship odds improve after three Game 1 upsets

The second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs has zagged, and the championship odds of the Minnesota Timberwolves came into sharp focus. This weekend, three of the most powerful and talented squads in the form of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, and Cleveland Cavaliers were all stunned early as they each dropped their first games of their respective series. All three were heavy favorites — all of them eight-point favorites or more — and all failed to win on their own courts. Those early upsets have further staggering the playoffs and drastically moving betting markets.

The Timberwolves are among the biggest beneficiaries of these results. Their odds to win the championship have certainly improved. Heading into May 2, their odds were, +1700 but after the string of Game 1 upset victories, those odds had improved to +1100. In implied probability terms, that leap means rising from a 5.56 percent likelihood of winning the championship to 8.3 percent, a significant jump in a crowded postseason.

Here are the latest odds for your favorite golfers, with all updated numbers courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. The Thunder were +155 and the Celtics were +185 to win the conference prior to the game. The Cavaliers’ odds, meanwhile, held at +500, which means that while they lost, the market isn’t selling them just yet. On the flip side, the Timberwolves, Nuggets and Knicks and Pacers all got a big break. And no team had a swing quite like Denver, which went from +5000 to +1500, the move indicative of more and more of you believing in their ability to cash in the postseason.

This shift in momentum couldn’t be playing out at a worse time for the Timberwolves, who open Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series by hosting the Golden State Warriors. Minnesota is favored to win by 6.5 points, and a win would only further solidify their place in the hearts of betting lines and analysts everywhere. The Timberwolves arrived in the playoffs with only the ninth-best championship odds, but their continued presence and the foibles of higher-ranked squads are starting to draw more interest.

Visiting teams winning Game 1 have been a rarity in N.B.A. history, but so far in this round, the victorious Game 1 teams all have been the road teams. The Timberwolves hope to buck it Tuesday night by taking care of their home court. If they can win this series against the Warriors, not only will their series chances appear better, but their long-term championship forecast will get even brighter.

Factor in that part of the drama is the Spurs still not knowing who, if anyone, of All-Star guard Steph Curry would play for the Warriors because of his ailing hamstring. This could even further tilt the scales in Minnesota’s favor for Game 1. And there have been humorous scenes, such as when Warriors forward Buddy Hield arrived at a media session wearing the wrong shorts for Game 1, or when Draymond Green had to walk back his promise not to get suspended, referencing a scuffle he had with the Jazz’s Rudy Gobert.

Though some fans are (understandably) pessimistic regarding the possibility of Minnesota going all the way to the NBA Finals, betting trends and recent performances indicate that they’re becoming a serious force. The team is resilient, recovering from difficult times, and in a better place than most probably thought it would be at this point. Their odds are based on a combination of their strong play and the flaws exhibited by the teams trying to catch them.

Betting odds can and will change and nothing is definitive in the unpredictable world of playoff basketball, but it’s actually evident that as much as they’re not a favorite just yet, Minnesota is no longer viewed as a long shot. They have gone from under-the-radar contenders to legitimate threats, and if they can keep up this level of play, a deep postseason campaign, or even a title shot, no longer sounds like just a pipe dream.

And as the playoffs move forward, it will be interesting to see, regarding both fans and bettors, just how closely people are watching the Timberwolves, who are suddenly a team generating a lot of interest. Their story just keeps getting better and better every game, and the numbers are finally starting to reflect what could be an earth-shattering moment for the franchise.